A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
